"Portugal Business Forecast Report Q3 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Jul 03 2014


Core Views

* Portugal's exit of its three-year international bailout programme in May 2014 will fail to herald an era of stability for the financially beleaguered country. With the official completion of the programme reducing international pressure for structural reform, we see domestic opposition to budget consolidation and public sector restructuring increasingly on the rise.
* We have slightly revised up our forecast for Portuguese real GDP growth for 2014 on account of a stronger than expected Q114 growth reading. Nevertheless, we reiterate our downbeat outlook for Portugal's long-term growth prospects, and we expect the country to register below pre-2009 growth levels for the foreseeable future.
* Weaker-than-expected growth will undermine the government's revenue raising ability. We maintain that a precautionary credit line with the troika of international lenders is likely when the current financial programme ends in May 2014.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/841229_portugal_business_forecast_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=304

Forecast Changes

The above-consensus real GDP growth reading in Q114 in Portugal surprised both our and market expectations to the upside, and has prompted us to revise upwards our 2014 growth forecasts - to 0.5% from 0.4% previously. Nevertheless, we remain below Bloomberg economists' consensus of 0.8% and we retain a subdued outlook for Portuguese economic growth for the foreseeable future due to the country's limited prospects of substantially enhancing its export competitiveness.

Risks To Outlook

* Downside Risks To Growth Forecast: The biggest immediate danger for Portugal is a deepening of the sovereign debt crisis, either for its own government or in another eurozone country, which would not only depress domestic confidence and external demand but will also temper investor demand for sovereign bonds, which might see yields, and as a result borrowing costs rise and jeopardise the government's precarious finances.
* Upside Risks To Economic Outlook: At present, we do not envisage long-term real GDP growth rising much...

The Portugal Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Portugal and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Portugal's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Portugal's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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